By Pat Hackett
A scientific theory can never ultimately be proven but it can be disproven. This is easily seen when we consider a single theory but is a bit more complex when we relate this to complex arguments that incorporates many separate interactions such as climate change.
A single theory.
Take for example Newton’s theories on
gravity. Isaac Newton was aware he could not ultimately prove his theories but
Albert Einstein eventually proved them to be inaccurate. According to Newton’s
laws light should not be deviated by gravitational forces as was predicted by
theories on relativity. When light was observed to bend on passing the sun then
Newton’s Laws were seen to be ultimately flawed. This of course does not mean
we throw them out and never use them again, for the simple fact that they are
easy to use and in many cases give us the predictive power we need. Further we
know where and where not the predictions will be good enough for the purpose.
Proving Climate theory.
There have recently been challenges given
with financial rewards offered for anyone being able to prove that climate change today has been primarily caused
by human activity. This of course is safe. It can never be ultimately proven no
matter how useful the anthropogenic argument may be.
Disproving Anthropogenic Climate change.
On
the other hand to disprove is possible. However as the AGW theory is complex it
can be difficult. The AGW theory includes many factors that can cause our
climate to change and one could always argue that if it were not for the AGW
then our climate would be very different than what it presently is.
It seems that both of these offers of
rewards, for either proof or disproof, cannot be achieved. However if the
physics underlying AGW theory could be disproved as in the example above with
gravity then you would have a strong claim to have disproven the AGW theory.
The whole argument would collapse.
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